70 posts categorized "Puerto Rico"

Puerto Rico: Reading the SCOTUS Tea Leaves

posted by John Pottow

I, too, join the cohort of surprised observers from this week's argument.  For me, the biggest takeaway is not so much that the Justices were engaging in textual sport, it's that they wanted to engage in those gymnastics.  That is, everyone seemed to get how unjustifiable the legal status quo is: it's clear the law is dumb, it's probable that Congress made a mistake, and so the Court had a very roll-up-their-sleeves attitude that struck me as, "What can we do to mitigate matters while being able to sleep at night that we are following an at-least-plausible reading of the text?"  The subtext to that is that they were not searching for the most natural reading of the text but the reading that did the least harm that could fix a problem.  (Surely a different colloquy would have ensued had the Late Justice Scalia been present!)

Note this is not "judicial activism" in my mind, because if it were true activism, they would just make up a doctrinal canon saying they can ignore the text when "manifestly unsound," or maybe open up the absurdity doctrine so wide you could drive a Jones Act tanker through it.  I see this as remarkably pragmatic.  We have to follow the text.  If you can get us a reading that we can live with, we'll do it.  That's why they kept pressing on what is the justification for this law.  Their lack of enthusiasm to any proffered makeweight (treat triple tax-exempt bonds differently from PR vs USVI?!) was telling.  If you're a judge, especially a Justice, I suspect you don't feel bad interpreting a law in a creative way if everyone but the self-serving litigants seems to suggest it's pointless.  In fact, you probably feel good.

All this said, don't get too excited for reversal yet.  The bondholders had some good textual counters in their briefs that didn't make oral argument.  But the irritation of the engaging Justices with the law, coupled with the simmering undercurrent of subjugation inherent in the territory's second-class status, suggests this really could be an interesting opinion.

Puerto Rico: The Recovery Act's Potential Second Wind

posted by Melissa Jacoby

 

This post continues the long-running Credit Slips discussion of Puerto Rico's Recovery Act, now the subject of U.S. Supreme Court review in Puerto Rico v. Franklin California Tax-Free Trust, 15-233, as indicated in Lubben's recent post and in last week's preview. In the video above, posted with permission of the American Bankruptcy Institute, I interview Bill Rochelle, who was at the Supreme Court for oral argument and makes some intriguing predictions on the vote, timing of issuing the opinion, judicial selection, and other matters. A few more reflections below the break.

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: The Recovery Act's Potential Second Wind " »

Lessons for Puerto Rico from ... Arkansas?

posted by Jason Kilborn

I did not realize that a US state had defaulted on its bonds, offering a historical comparative example of the difficulties facing Puerto Rico, its creditors, and mostly its citizens if the mess there is not subjected to an orderly, judicially supervised debt cleanup process of some kind. In a new working paper from the Cleveland Fed, O. Emre Ergungor tells the interesting story of the Depression-era default by Arkansas on various road construction bonds and its messy and politically charged path to a workout. A couple of apparent lessons are troubling. First, reaffirming the aphorism that $#!@ rolls downhill, most of the pain was suffered by Arkansas citizens and ordinary creditors, with bondholders pulling every available lever to ensure a soft landing for themselves. Ergungor sums up this lesson nicely: "in the absence of a dedicated judicial process for preserving the governmental functions of a state in debt renegotiations, sovereignty offers meager protections for the interests of the general public." Second, in a prophetic warning about bailouts, Ergungor describes the intervention of the federal Reconstruction Finance Corporation to provide liquidity for a refinancing of the workout bonds years later. As one would expect, a Chicago Tribune article took the feds to task for helping Arkansas in this way, insisting that the RFC chief "ought to be willing to to do as much for Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, and all the rest of the states." I know Illinois would surely appreciate some federal support for its current behemoth pension burden. If the Executive intervenes in the Puerto Rico situation today, will we see another Tribune article like the one that criticized selective federal intervention for Arkansas? Does it matter that, technically, it is Puerto Rico's sub-units that are in distress, not the Territory itself? I struggle to understand even what all the issues are in the Puerto Rico debate, but Ergungor's paper helps me to put at least the financial problems in some useful context.

Puerto Rico: Further Supreme Court Thoughts

posted by Stephen Lubben

So Noah Feldman has a column up on Bloomberg that suggests that section 903(1) of the Code should clearly apply to the Commonwealth. It's a sensible argument, if you read that section entirely in isolation and know nothing about the overall structure of the Bankruptcy Code.

And while I say that intending a bit of the obvious snark – what else could be expected, he’s suggesting that my analysis is essentially daft – it is important to remember that the Supreme Court is not made up of bankruptcy experts. Thus, his column provides a fairly clear analysis of how Puerto Rico might still lose, despite the apparent leanings of the Justices in yesterday’s oral argument.

So if there is a non-frivolous argument for preemption of the Recovery Act, why do I think the Court might still overturn the First Circuit? It could happen one of two ways.

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: Further Supreme Court Thoughts" »

Puerto Rico: Supreme Court Argument

posted by Stephen Lubben

The transcript can be found here.  Based on my initial read, it seems like the First Circuit might be reversed, which opens up all the issues Jacoby noted earlier (namely, will the statute pass Contracts Clause review – assuming the Clause even applies to the Commonwealth).

Puerto Rico: Help Still Wanted

posted by Melissa Jacoby

BranchFor the past two weeks, Credit Slips posts have considered the role of the Executive Branch in facilitating a Puerto Rico debt restructuring in the absence of Congressional action. That constraint is hereby relaxed, and thus future posts may well include the role of Congress and the judiciary in various combinations. For example, whatever one's view of the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies, they show that the administration can shape a restructuring by working within the framework of formal bankruptcy law. Imagine, for example, that Congress adopts the most modest of the proposals, H.R. 870, which merely fixes the unfortunate exclusion of Puerto Rico municipalities from ordinary chapter 9. The administration could put together post-filing financing packages with the stream of loan proceeds conditioned on the inclusion of various covenants, including those imposing fiscal reforms.  

Meanwhile, March 22 is drawing near. On that date, the United States Supreme Court will review a legal challenge to the Puerto Rico Public Corporation Debt Enforcement and Recovery Act. Below the jump are reminders and new points about the role of this court fight in Puerto Rico's debt crisis and why Congress and the Executive Branch are not off the hook. 

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: Help Still Wanted" »

Lessons on Puerto Rico Bonds from the Financial Crisis

posted by Katie Porter

With a fiasco as big as the financial crisis, one of the only positive outcomes is there are a lot of lessons for the future. As Credit Slips thinks about how the administration might influence the resolution of Puerto Rico's bond problems, I think there are a few points from the financial crisis to consider.

First, and foremost, is the importance of explaining the issue. Particularly in times of crisis, the explanation/education end of things tends to be pushed to the back of policymakers. "Action" is favored over explanation, but ultimately if the public does not understand what is at stake and the administration's goals, the White House and others quickly have to waste time on the defensive or retreat into silence. Neither strategy helps the problem. One need only look at all the calls to audit or disband the Federal Reserve Board in the wake of the crisis actions around Bear Stearns to see the long-term problems that come from policy without a good public relations campaign. If you need another example, read this great and short piece by William Sage, called Brand New Law! The Need to Market Health Care Reform.

Second, lawyers are fairly lousy at administration. They negotiate hard but the practicability of getting relief is not their strength. We can take a lot of blame for this as law school professors, in that we should teach skills in organizational behavior, project management, etc, especially for those interested in policy. With the financial crisis, the problem was not that the HAMP loan modification term was too stingy or bad on its substance. The problem was severe delays and tangles in rolling out the relief. Jean Braucher has an excellent piece--the title, Humpty Dumpty and the Foreclosure Crisis, gives away the punchline. Whatever is done with respect to Puerto Rico needs to be efficiently administered. In this regard, I think the involvement of seasoned chapter 11 bankruptcy lawyers is a great development. These lawyers are used to being keenly focused on administrative costs in an insolvency situation, and provide a much needed counter-perspective to traditional Washington policymakers. I think if more consumer bankruptcy lawyers had been consulted during the design of HAMP and similar Making Homes Affordable programs, those programs could have been more consumer-friendly, using where people stumble in bankruptcy to identify likely obstacles in obtaining a loan modification (such as submitting paperwork and describing one's own financial situation accurately).

Third, and finally I think the financial crisis reminds us not to get lost in the billions of dollars at stake and the high finance concepts. Behind every bond, there are real people--investors, Puerto Rican residents, taxpayers, and others. The quality of a solution to Puerto Rico's financial problems is not a Wall Street issue; it is a Main Street issue.

And Now for Something Nutty on Puerto Rico

posted by John Pottow

I know nothing about the statutes delegating "home rule" authority to the Commonwealth, but do they have any reversionary clauses?  For example, if there's crisis, war, etc., can the federal government revest in any power?  Leaving aside the political unpalatability, wouldn't that leave the executive branch with a freer hand?  Building, can the President (temporarily) draft the island's residents, then issue an order taking (for fair/discounted value) any debts related to providing services for this vital military installation?  Or how about declaring it a giant national monument?  OK, feel free to go back to common sense if you want now.  (Hey, we were supposed to think creatively...)

Puerto Rico Bondholders: Fact and Fantasy

posted by Katie Porter

When I think about "bondholders," I tend to think about their lawyers. (That probably says a lot about the crowds that I run in). In the case of Puerto Rico, we've seen affable, whip smart, expensively dressed New York lawyers make cogent arguments against many of the bond restructuring proposals. But these lawyers are not the bondholders themselves, who are a much more diverse lot. While the hedge funds may be voicing many of the arguments via their fancy attorneys, there is a large, and and largely silent, bondholder community of Puerto Rican residents. The number that I've seen for the share of bond debt held by residents is 40%, although it is difficult to validate this, and it almost surely varies depending on the bond issuer, bond vintage, and other factors. Thomas Mayer estimated to Congress that $15 billion in PR bonds are held by Puerto Ricans (this works out to a lower figure than the 40% share it's still hefty).

In the public debate about Puerto Rico's fiscal crisis, people have noted that the debt is widely held across the country--that this is not "just" a Puerto Rico issue. PR bonds were given tax-advantaged status, regardless of the bondholder's place of residence. But that  does not mean that residents of Puerto Rico themselves--for either fiscal or civic reasons--are not an important group of bondholders. Their concerns about a bond default and willingness to restructure may be quite different than hedge funds or institutional investors. Why? And how might this affect the Administration's interest--or taxpayers' interest generally--in a workout for bondholders?

Continue reading "Puerto Rico Bondholders: Fact and Fantasy" »

Puerto Rico: Colonial Chickens, Structural Priority, and Contingent Debt

posted by Anna Gelpern

It has been a humbling torrent of creativity, and I am honored to chip in a tuppence at the eleventh hour. After an existential preface, I consider how one might use (or resist using) federal credit enhancement in the inevitable debt exchange.

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: Colonial Chickens, Structural Priority, and Contingent Debt" »

Puerto Rico: LoPucki's Virtual Bankruptcy Proposal

posted by Melissa Jacoby

Hard to believe it has been over a year since a creditor representative opposing H.R. 870 characterized chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy as "the Wild West" in Congressional testimony. Whatever uncertainties bankruptcy law contains (and, sure, they are not trivial), our symposium reveals that the true legal wilderness in government debt restructuring lies beyond the boundaries of title 11. 

Enriching the collective brainstorm is a proposal by the always-innovative UCLA law professor Lynn M. LoPucki published in the Huffington Post. Here's the link, and here's a quote:  

LoPuckiVirtual9

 

 

 

 

 

The full story offers plenty of caveats and risks for creditors - including that this approach could be considerably less protective of creditors' interests than bankruptcy - so do read the whole thing. Although the piece does not expressly mention the Executive Branch, prior Credit Slips posts (such as here) have illustrated the potential combination of the Administration's use of soft powers to promote restructuring efforts formally initiated by Puerto Rico - again, potentially without the creditor protections normally associated with bankruptcy and without other pieces of financial reform that many have advocated. 

 

 

[UPDATED] Puerto Rico: More Views, Including on the Role of the Obama Administration

posted by Melissa Jacoby

Watch here at 1pm ET to see former Treasury official Brad Setser, now senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, talk about Puerto Rico (along with Cate Long, Dick Ravitch, and Aaron Kuriloff). [March 9 UPDATE: transcript available here]

Read here for proposals of Puerto Rico governor candidate Ricardo Rosselló Nevares, including Treasury assisting with interim financing, with an analogy to GM and Chrysler during the 2008 financial crisis (see point 6 in the document).

[March 9 UPDATE: lest anyone need reminding of what can happen when a majority of creditors cannot bind holdouts, check out Anna Gelpern's recent assessment of the Argentina settlement]  

 

Puerto Rico: The Multiple Issuer Problem

posted by Adam Levitin

One problem complicating any resolution of Puerto Rico's financial distress is that there are a multiplicity of issuers. There are separate claims on separate issuers, and it won't work to resolve just some of them, as they are all ultimately drawing on the same set of economic resources.  While there are claims on different assets, they value of those assets derive from Puerto Rico's overall economic production.  This multiple debtor problem makes Puerto Rico materially different from, say Detroit, where there was one primary debtor (the City of Detroit). (I don't know the legal status of Detroit Public Schools--is it separate from the City, the way the Chicago Public Schools are?) As far as I'm aware, Chapter 9 filings have almost always been single entity filings, rather than filings of multiple associated cases, as occurs with Chapter 11. 

So what can be done to deal with the multiple issuer problem? Even if Puerto Rico were allowed to file for bankruptcy (or its various sub-territorial entities were allowed to file), it doesn't solve the problem. While there can be multiple bankruptcy filings and the different cases can be administratively consolidated, that is a very different thing that actual consolidation of debtors, and the inability to resolve claims on one debtor can hold the other cases hostage.  It doesn't do any good to resolve the general obligation debt if creditors can force the electric utility to raise prices through the roof.  With this sort of multiple entity case, the hostage value held by creditors increases significantly.

Puerto Rico's division of governmental authority into various government units is a form of asset partitioning.  This asset partitioning might have helped Puerto Rico get more credit than it should have on cheaper terms ex ante (for a model, see here), but ex post this sort of asset partitioning can blow up in a debtor's face if there is no way to reconsolidate in order to restructure. (Consider, for example, the value of the LA Dodgers without their stadium and without the parking lots by the stadium.) Partitioning via devolution of authority to multiple local government units and authorities is a more permanently binding form of asset partitioning than corporate subsidiaries or even than some securitization arrangements.

Below I present three ideas for how to resolve the multiple issuer problem: consolidation via exchange offer; consolidation via merger; and consolidation via the creation of a common co-issuer entity that is bankruptcy eligible.  

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: The Multiple Issuer Problem" »

Puerto Rico Symposium: Of Wills and Ways

posted by Melissa Jacoby

JigsawDebt relief without Congress? No one promised it would be pretty.  

Our brainstorm (remember the ground rules) has included Levitin's MacGyver-inspired local currency, eminent domain, and liberally-interpreted exchange stabilization, Weidemaier's use of COFINA doubts to wedge open the door for a Executive Branch/Puerto Rico partnership, and, thanks to economist Arturo Estrella, a long menu of options with examples, summarized succinctly as "where there is a will, there is a way" (p. 1) (english report at bottom of this page). Could the federal government underwrite new bonds in an exchange offer, asks Pottow? Be the mediator with a big stick, asks Lubben?  Might a holdout creditor be liable to shareholders if it rebuffed a reasonable deal, asks Jiménez? (scroll to the comments). Marc Joffe notes the potential analogy of the City of Hercules tender offer (as well as the fact that Levitin's local currency suggestion has a history from the Depression). 

Lawless reminds us of the risks associated with discriminatory treatment of Puerto Rico's debt and access to legal tools. Of course, there is a long history here. Maria de los Angeles Trigo points to UT professor Bartholomew Sparrow's study of the Insular cases. And while most expect debt relief will be conditioned on some sort of fiscal oversight, it needs to be designed in a way to avoid the foibles of the past.

Returning to Lubben's mediation theme, let's push the brainstorming a step farther: could Treasury appoint a federal judge, such as Chief District Judge Gerald Rosen (E.D. Mich.), to oversee the mediation, and demand that all creditors participate in good faith until released? Even in the absence of legal authority for this move, would creditors formally object or fail to show up? 

Thanks to participants and readers for active involvement so far, and please keep your thoughts and reactions coming this way.  

Puzzle photo courtesy of Shutterstock.com

Puerto Rico: Facilitate an Exchange Offer, Now

posted by Stephen Lubben

Jacoby asks what can the Executive Branch do to help out Puerto Rico.  The most practical thing it could do, right now, is to facilitate an exchange offer.  Whether the Treasury itself can act as a mediator, or at least facilitate mediation by some outsider, this seems like the quickest way to a real solution to the near-term problems the Commonwealth faces.  Treasury might also act as an overseer of reforms and a (comparatively) neutral voice with regard to Puerto Rico’s financial information.

Yes, it would be great to resolve the Commonwealth’s awkward legal status – and maybe, just maybe the Supreme Court will do that this term.  Or at least start the process.  But long before that can happen, Puerto Rico is facing potential defaults.  Those need to be addressed right now.  If the Executive Branch can facilitate the negotiation of a comprehensive exchange offer, the Commonwealth will gain time to solve those bigger, long term issues.

Puerto Rico: Eminent Domain, Greenbacks, and the Exchange Stabilization Fund--Some Outside-the-Box Musings

posted by Adam Levitin
The Puerto Rico situation feels a little like a McGuyver episode.  How do we get out of a locked room with only a rubber band and a toothpick?  Here are some half-baked thoughts, first on the nature of the problems and then some ideas for solutions.  

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: Eminent Domain, Greenbacks, and the Exchange Stabilization Fund--Some Outside-the-Box Musings" »

Puerto Rico And (Very) Soft Executive Power

posted by Mark Weidemaier

Melissa's post asked what the executive branch could do to facilitate restructuring of Puerto Rico's debt. I'll get to that, but I first want to talk about Puerto Rico itself. At first glance, the Commonwealth seems to be in a uniquely terrible position. It has the disadvantages of a sovereign (e.g., no bankruptcy) but lacks the advantages (e.g., legal and/or practical immunity from legal enforcement). In fact, it lacks only most of the advantages. One advantage of sovereignty it does enjoy--and that many "true" sovereign borrowers are obliged to forego when they borrow--is that much of its debt is governed by its own law. That law can be changed (subject to constraints in the U.S. constitution) or interpreted in ways that give the Commonwealth needed restructuring flexibility. 

Continue reading "Puerto Rico And (Very) Soft Executive Power" »

Puerto Rico: Blame and the Debt of "the Other"

posted by Bob Lawless

Recently, I have been spending a lot of time thinking about the psychology of other people's indebtedness. I see parallels from this work and the way we think about Puerto Rican government debt. This thinking then tends to stand in the way of solutions.

An example is the psychological idea of the fundamental attribution error. This heuristic means we over-attribute other people's behavior to their personality rather than their circumstance. The guy speeding past me on the highway is a jerk instead of late for a meeting. Our neighbor who has filed bankruptcy is irresponsible rather than the victim of a job layoff. It is not that some people aren't jerks or irresponsible. Rather, we over-attribute behavior to personality rather than circumstance. If you don't see my point, there is probably something wrong with you. (Get it?)

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: Blame and the Debt of "the Other"" »

PR: Let's start with financing...

posted by John Pottow

OK, so I start from the premise that holdouts don't want to restructure debt but others do.  Thus, the goal should be incentivize restructuring in a way that beats up on holdouts.  Could the Feds say they'll offer financing (e.g., underwrite new bonds) for people who exchange bonds/debt?

Credit Slips Presents: A Virtual Symposium on Puerto Rico

posted by Melissa Jacoby

TablePuerto Rico debt restructuring legislation is flying fast and furious around Congress. But the air contains more than a whiff of defeatism regarding the prospects of passage. Bills vary greatly in substance and scope, and yet apparently the response of powerful creditors is consistent: they want to retain the right to be holdouts and are making that position perfectly clear to our elected representatives.

Credit Slips contributors are no strangers to anti-restructuring advocacy, whether framed as moral hazard or otherwise. To that end, we embark on a virtual symposium inspired by the following question: What could the Executive Branch do to facilitate the restructuring of government debt in Puerto Rico absent Congressional action? 

On tap to brainstorm around this theme in the next two weeks are (in alphabetical order): Anna Gelpern, Melissa Jacoby, Bob Lawless, Adam Levitin, Stephen Lubben, Katherine Porter, John Pottow, Mark Weidemaier, and Jay Westbrook.

Continue reading "Credit Slips Presents: A Virtual Symposium on Puerto Rico" »

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