Man Bites Dog, or Debt Collector Restructures Its Distressed Debt

I couldn't let this one pass without noting it. The largest debt collection company in Europe has found itself on the other end of the dunning letter. Swedish debt collection company Intrum has achieved majority (barely) support for a deal with bondholders to swap 10% of its $5.8 billion debt for equity and push out the maturity of remaining notes. Intrum found itself in this mess after "years of borrowing heavily in the low-interest era to buy portfolios"--that is, to buy bunches of distressed debt owed by strapped borrowers all over Europe, which Intrum would then squeeze for repayment at a higher rate than Intrum had paid. Or so Intrum hoped. Apparently this investment strategy went sour after "a slowdown in its business." Hmmm. What an interesting euphemism! Borrowers resisting collection pressure more resolutely now? I wonder if the growing wave of personal insolvency procedures across Europe has contributed to this "slowdown" for Intrum's debt collection efforts. Good news for borrowers is bad new for the debt collector!  

Alex Jones, Chapter 7, and the Means Test

I'm embarrassed to have fallen into an analytical trap that yet again reveals the absurdity of the means test. When I saw that Alex Jones was converting his personal Chapter 11 case to Chapter 7 liquidation, I wondered, "how in the world could Alex Jones pass the means test?!" Well, a quick look at section 707(b) reminded me that some pigs are more equal than others: the means test applies only to debtors "whose debts are primarily consumer debts." The $1.5 billion defamation debt obliterates the means test ... because of course Alex Jones's personal bankruptcy case is not an abuse of the system (!). Further evidence in support of the thesis of Melissa's new book, it seems.

Long-run (positive) effects of personal debt relief

Empirical papers on the long-run effects of a personal bankruptcy relief system (i.e., discharge) are rare, so this fascinating new paper caught my eye. The first personal insolvency discharge system in continental Europe appeared in Denmark in 1984, and this paper takes advantage of that long lifespan to mine some rather unique data. The results are unsurprising but very useful in the ongoing debate about the salutary effects of such procedures: "debt relief leads to a large increase in earned income, employment, assets, real estate, secured debt, home ownership, and wealth that persists for more than 25 years after a court ruling." So the benefits of debt relief are not only substantial but robust, as debtors learn their lesson (if there was one to learn) about managing their finances, and they capitalize (literally) on their fresh start. Perhaps most important, the cause of these effects seems to be largely the desired result of any personal discharge system--getting debtors out from under the debilitating thumb of hopelessly unserviceable creditor demands and reactivating them as engaged workers and taxpayers: "The net transition of workers into employment accounts for two thirds of the increase in earned income." Great contribution to the literature on personal insolvency and well worth a read.

Creative Destruction in Small Business Bankruptcy

Two distantly related items caught my eye this morning, as both reinforce the need for "creative destruction" as a response to all-too-common small business failure.

The first was a NYT piece on the travails of a female entrepreneur in China. It tells a heart-wrenching story of a system in which the state brutally represses honest but unfortunate debtors, including via the infamous blacklist that prevents defaulters from using air and train travel (effectively curtailing re-entry into business, even if financial and economic factors might otherwise allow this). This is a story about what it looks like when there is no bankruptcy backstop, no reset button to start fresh and undertake a new venture with the hard lessons of failure firmly in mind.

The other item explores the transition from such an unforgiving system--in Spain--after the introduction of a discharge for (most) small business debt. The linked Bank of Spain working paper offers further evidence of the salutary effects of small business bankruptcy that discharges individual entrepreneurs and encourages them to restart. The reform fostered the "creative destruction" of these entrepreneurs' ventures, with the failed firms exiting the market (rather than lingering as productivity-depressing zombies), which "leads to technological change and higher productivity growth" as "the introduction of the fresh start policy promoted firm creation among Spanish micro-firms, especially in companies with a high share of intangible assets, which are likely to be involved in innovation activities, and in sectors with high productivity." Nicely linking the two contrasting accounts from China and Spain, the Bank of Spain paper concludes, "This finding also suggests that a starkly pro-creditor personal bankruptcy law with no real fresh start, like the Spanish one before 2015, may be an important barrier to entry for small businesses." Indeed.

It still surprises me that lawmakers around the world continue to resist this long-established truth for small business, powerfully undermining the most important driver of economic development worldwide. Worse yet, the mere introduction of a personal bankruptcy law with a debt discharge is not enough--the system actors have to actually support a fresh-start policy rather than actively undermining it, which turns out to have been the disappointing result of the first two years of such a system in Shenzhen, China. One hopes that national legislatures, like small entrepreneurs, can learn from failure and move forward with proper personal bankruptcy laws when given a fresh opportunity to do so.