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Odd Lots Podcast on Iraq's Astonishing Debt Restructuring (Next: Ecuador's Dodgy Buyback?)

posted by Mitu Gulati

For sovereign debt fans, there is a very nice podcast from Bloomberg's Odd Lots that was put up a couple of days ago (here).  The title says it all: "How Iraq Pulled Off One of the Biggest Sovereign Debt Restructurings of All Time".  It is a pity that there has not been more writing about the Iraqi debt restructuring because this is one from which there are many lessons to be learned. Lessons that are relevant for Venezuela in particular.

Plus, it was so creative and there were so many colorful characters involved (I loved the podcast, but I wish that they had talked more about the cast of characters and some of the individual stories like those of the neo cons, the US President, LCB, the NGOs, Alexander Sack and so on).

The guest for the podcast was LSE Econ Historian, Simon Hinrichsen (especially impressive that the basis of the podcast is a chapter from his dissertation -- I cannot imagine anything that I wrote in grad school being worthy of much more than toilet paper).

So, I have a request to Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway.  If you are listening, could you guys continue with your historical excavation series and do one on Ecuador's Dodgy Buyback from 2008-09? One of the themes in their discussion with Simon on Iraq was the decision taken ultimately (contrary, I have heard, to the preferences of the US President) to not use the Odious Debt defense.  That probably helped Iraq, but maybe hurt the international system in that that was a wonderful opportunity to change international law for the better.  But it is not the case that no country has run with that defense successfully.  Ecuador in 2008-09 is one. And China, with respect to its Imperial debt is another one.

In class in NY last week, we had some of the folks who worked on the post-buyback resuscitation of Ecuador's reputation in the international markets come and discuss how that had been engineered. It is an amazing story because Ecuador is now a regular and respectable issuer in the EM space. How the hell did that happen so quickly?  Unfortunately, I promised to keep mum about what was said in class last week.  But fabulous reporters like Joe and Tracy could unpack this on a podcast.  And then those of us who study this topic would benefit.

Comments

Also, I'd say that hunger for yields from market players usually is the biggest contributor to "restore" EMs and frontier's "reputation" in the sovereign debt markets. That was specially truth in the post-Great Recession world.

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