Puerto Rico (A Quick Take)

So the debt restructuring plan is out. The New York Times indicates that the Oversight Board aimed to put the Commonwealth's debt at "less than" the average of the ten most indebted states. Not exactly a "fresh start" there, is it? Why not peg the debt to that of the average state?

Nonetheless, we can expect the bondholders to complain about even the relatively modest haircut they are slated to take, and they will surely note that the pensioners are taking less of a cut. Of course, the pensioners are in some sense funding the bondholder's recovery, since they are a key factor in keeping the Commonwealth's economy alive.

Normally we say that the liquidation baseline does not work in chapter 9 cases, because there is no real way to "liquidate" a municipality. But if the bondholders push too hard, they may test that assumption with regard to Puerto Rico. Lightly populated Caribbean islands do not support large debt loads, or even 63% recoveries to bondholders.