postings by Bob Lawless

Bankruptcy Filings for 2017 -- Let's Say 767,000

posted by Bob Lawless

2016 Annual Filings ChartAccording to Epiq Systems, there were 771, 894 total U.S. bankruptcy filings in 2016, a decline of 5.8% from 2015. The overall annual decline in 2015 was 10.0% and was 11.8% in 2014.  As I noted yesterday, the rate of decrease is decreasing.

At the beginning of 2016, I projected 780,000 filings for the year. That forecast was only 1.0% off. Pride goeth before a fall. Here is my thinking for 2017.

Continue reading "Bankruptcy Filings for 2017 -- Let's Say 767,000" »

Bankruptcy Rate Rises in December . . . A Blip and Not a Blip

posted by Bob Lawless

2016 Month Over Month TrendsSomething happened in the U.S. bankruptcy courts that had not happened since October 2010. The daily filing rate increased on a year-over-year basis. There were 56,394 filings in December 2016 as compared to 53,844 in the previous December. Also, because the 2016 filings were spread over one less business day than in 2015, the rise represented a 9.7% increase in the daily filing rate. The lighter-red line in the graph to right the shows just how dramatic the spike was.

Continue reading "Bankruptcy Rate Rises in December . . . A Blip and Not a Blip" »

ABI Podcast on Race and Chapter 13

posted by Bob Lawless

In October, a panel at the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges explored the role of race and implicit bias in the bankruptcy system. Called "The Color of Money: The Implications of Race and Ethnicity in Addressing Debt," the panel included a presentation by yours truly about our research exploring the intersection of race and chapter 13. If you were not at NCBJ, the American Bankruptcy Institute was kind enough to ask me to do a podcast about our research and the updates to it since its original appearance in 2012. The podcast is a little over seventeen minutes long if you want to give it a listen.

ABA Journal Blawg 100!

posted by Bob Lawless

HonoreeBadgeCredit Slips is honored to have been selected as part of the ABA Journal's Blawg 100, their annual list of the top 100 blogs about law and lawyering. It is our second year in a row for inclusion on the list.

We appreciate all of our readers and are humbled by the time you spend with us. The comments to the posts continually demonstrate that one of the things that makes this blog work is our readership. Thanks for visiting.

The Big 1-0

posted by Bob Lawless

10th BirthdayToday is the tenth anniversary of the launch of Credit Slips. We started the blog in the middle of a big research project as an exercise in team building We also thought the blog might be a place where we could try to reach a wider audience about the scholarship coming out of the project. It is hard to believe we are still chugging along after 10 years.

A lot has happened in 10 years. When we started, blogging was relatively new and especially new for academics trying to reach outside the ivy-covered walls. There weren't no Twitter or Facebook, and Pokemon was passé. Looking back at that first post, four of the original seven bloggers are still with the blog. Things have moved on considerably for most all of the original bloggers. One of us got hired and tenured at one of this nation's leading law schools. A few of us have moved universities. One of us even became the senior United States senator from Massachusetts. Some of our newest bloggers are people we were mentoring as junior scholars or even students ten years ago. For myself over the past 10 years, I managed to move to a new faculty office down the hallway.

We have been talking about a few changes to the blog to keep current with the times, but the changes will not affect our topical focus. Our goal remains what it has been from the start, which is to reach outside the legal academy to have conversations with who care deeply about the policy issues surrounding credit, finance & bankruptcy. Thanks for being part of the conversation.

Porter's Modern Consumer Law

posted by Bob Lawless

Porter Consumer LawCredit Slips blogger Katie Porter has produced a new textbook in consumer law that anyone teaching the subject should consider adopting. Indeed, law professors not teaching consumer law should to take a look at it and consider whether they should add the class to their teaching portfolio. A 2013 poll on Brian Leiter's Law School Reports named consumer law as the number one "area of law which deserves more attention in the legal academy." Next academic year I will be picking up a new course, and the emergence of Porter's new text made the decision easy for me as to which course it will be.

In the preface, Porter makes explicit her three-pronged approach to the topic of consumer law:

  1. The book situates consumer law within the business-law curriculum. "Consumer law is big business," she notes. Understanding the legal issues requires understanding the "deal," the information flow, and the market in which the transaction occurs. Porter expressly recognizes, "the world of consumer practice offers opportunities for lawyers to represent consumers (as government lawyers, policy advocates, and plaintiffs’ attorneys) and to represent businesses (as in-house counsel, defense attorneys, and
    lobbyists)."
  2. The book provides a strong theoretical frame by situating consumer law at the intersection of tort and contract. The book does not present consumer law as a hodgepodge of cases and statutes loosely organized around the term "consumer." Rather it recognizes that a lot of what travels under the law of "consumer law" responds to the gaps that traditional contract and torts doctrines have when it comes to the issues that consumer transactions create.
  3. The book explores where the social-science literature has learning for consumer law. Porter looks to see what psychology, sociology, marketing, and economics can add to our understanding of the legal issues. By doing so, the book explores the difference between law on the ground and law in the books. 

The book uses a problem-based method of instruction that will be familiar to users of Porter's co-authored bankruptcy textbook or my co-authored secured transactions textbook. The problems range from straight-forward statute readers to teach doctrine to tough client counseling problems that focus on real-world lawyering skills.

More information, including a table of contents and a sample chapter, can be found at Aspen Publishers.

Annual U.S. Bankruptcy Filings on Track for 6.7% Decline

posted by Bob Lawless

Filings per 1000.July 2008 to June 2016It has been a while since I last checked in on bankruptcy filing rates. The arrival of the latest figures from Epiq Systems was a welcome reminder to do so.

We are at the halfway point for the year, and the U.S. has had 398,000 bankruptcy filings. It is tempting to simply double that figure to get an estimate of what filings will total for all of 2016, but that estimate would be too high. Bankruptcy filings are somewhat more concentrated in the first six months of the calendar, which have accounted for about 52% of yearly filings for the past two years. Extrapolating from recent experience would mean there will be 764,000 filings for the calendar year.

That would be a 6.7% decline in filings from 2015. Back in January, I forecasted a 5% decline or 780,000 filings for 2016. Given that we are well within the confidence interval of that estimate, I will take that. Although we still have half the year left to go, the model I use for the forecasting looks to be holding up.

In terms of trends, we have had 68 straight months of year-over-year declines in the daily filing rate. The annualized filing rate per 1,000 currently stands at 2.46. The graph shows a 12-month moving average for filings per 1,000 persons since 2008. The discerning eye will note the tail of the graph is flattening. The year-over-year decline is slowing. Where we saw double-digit declines in 2013-14, the declines are in the 5%-8% figures now.

Continue reading "Annual U.S. Bankruptcy Filings on Track for 6.7% Decline" »

Law & Society, 2016 Panels on Household Finance

posted by Bob Lawless

If you happen to be at the 2016 Law & Society Association meetings in New Orleans, stop by the panels from the Collaborative Research Network (CRN) on Household Finance. This group got its start as an international collaborative studying overindebtedness thanks for the leadership of people like the late Jean Braucher, Johanna Niemi, Iain Ramsay, and Bill Whitford. We have scholars from all over the world and from diverse disciplines thinking about how law on the ground affects household financial outcomes. Below the fold is a listing of panels, topics, and presenters for this year. If you are an academic and want to be on the CRN email list, contact me or Credit Slips blogger Dalie Jimenez.

Continue reading "Law & Society, 2016 Panels on Household Finance" »

Puerto Rico: Blame and the Debt of "the Other"

posted by Bob Lawless

Recently, I have been spending a lot of time thinking about the psychology of other people's indebtedness. I see parallels from this work and the way we think about Puerto Rican government debt. This thinking then tends to stand in the way of solutions.

An example is the psychological idea of the fundamental attribution error. This heuristic means we over-attribute other people's behavior to their personality rather than their circumstance. The guy speeding past me on the highway is a jerk instead of late for a meeting. Our neighbor who has filed bankruptcy is irresponsible rather than the victim of a job layoff. It is not that some people aren't jerks or irresponsible. Rather, we over-attribute behavior to personality rather than circumstance. If you don't see my point, there is probably something wrong with you. (Get it?)

Continue reading "Puerto Rico: Blame and the Debt of "the Other"" »

2016 Bankruptcy Forecast -- Let's Say 780,000

posted by Bob Lawless

Forecasting U.S. bankruptcy filings for this year was a little more complicated. In a comment to my post about the total 2015 bankruptcy filings, Erich Fabricius made the astute observation that December 2016 saw the introduction of new bankruptcy forms and that could explain my befuddlement at the abnormally large 14.8% decline for December in terms of year-over-year daily filing rates. November, in contrast, saw almost no decline in the year-over-year rate, which is also unusual. The relatively stronger numbers in November suggests that attorneys were perhaps trying to beat the deadline before the new forms went into effect. The effect would not have to be huge -- shifting 5,000 filings from December into November would have been enough to create this effect.

What that means is my preferred mathematical model to predict bankruptcy filings for the next year has to start with the immediately previous two months being untypical months. If I run the model with the actual data, I get 800,000 filings. If I "correct" the numbers for November and December to what would have been expected had recent monthly trends continued, the model predicts 782,000 filings. The model controls for the amount of outstanding consumer credit and national personal income and has proven accurate in the past

Continue reading "2016 Bankruptcy Forecast -- Let's Say 780,000" »

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  • As a public service, the University of Illinois College of Law operates Bankr-L, an e-mail list on which bankruptcy professionals can exchange information. Bankr-L is administered by one of the Credit Slips bloggers, Professor Robert M. Lawless of the University of Illinois. Although Bankr-L is a free service, membership is limited only to persons with a professional connection to the bankruptcy field (e.g., lawyer, accountant, academic, judge). To request a subscription on Bankr-L, click here to visit the page for the list and then click on the link for "Subscribe." After completing the information there, please also send an e-mail to Professor Lawless (rlawless@illinois.edu) with a short description of your professional connection to bankruptcy. A link to a URL with a professional bio or other identifying information would be great.

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